Real Estate Agents Are About To Make More Money Than Ever (And Half Will Still Fail)

There's a data point that just dropped that's about to change everything real estate agents think they know about the market. And if you're paying attention, it confirms what I've been saying for months: 2026 is going to be absolutely insane.

Let me show you what I'm seeing.

The Golden Handcuffs Myth Is Dead

Here's the stat that's making waves:

There are now MORE mortgages with rates at 6% or higher than mortgages at 3% or lower.

Read that again.

For years, everyone said sellers were "locked in" with their low rates. The golden handcuffs theory dominated every conversation. "Nobody will sell because they can't give up their 3% rate."

The data says otherwise.

People have been trading their lower mortgages for higher mortgages all along. Not at a massive rate, but consistently.

Why?

• Massive equity. Homeowners who bought or refinanced at 3% have built substantial equity they can roll into their next purchase.
• Downsizing. Many are buying smaller or cheaper homes, reducing payments despite higher rates.
• Larger down payments. Sellers are putting more money down to offset the payment difference.

Here's my position: I believe the golden handcuffs existed to an extent, but they weren't the main driver of low transaction volume. That honor goes to affordability.

What Actually Crushed The Market (It Wasn't Rates)

The market crashed because of affordability. Period.

• Home prices surged
• Insurance costs exploded
• Property taxes increased
• Total monthly costs became unmanageable

Not because people were "locked in" to their rates.

Want proof? Look at 2021.

We had some of the lowest inventory ever but closed 6 million existing home sales — the second-highest year in history.

I was selling real estate that year. I couldn't keep listings. I normally maintained 20-30 active listings. In 2021? I had 3-5 at any given time. Everything sold immediately.

The theory that "we need more inventory for more transactions" is false. We have data proving homes sell with low inventory.

The real issue? Demand.

And demand was crushed by affordability, not by sellers holding onto low rates.

The Current Market Setup

Right now, we have 1.2-1.3 million homes on the market.

That's not back to 2019 levels yet (normal is around 2 million), but we're significantly better than we were.

Here's what matters: Inventory isn't the constraint anymore. Demand is. And demand is about to surge.

Why?

Affordability is improving for the first time in years:

• Mortgage payments peaked in May and have dropped since
• Home prices have flattened (even declined in many markets)
• Mortgage rates have come down substantially
• Household incomes are outpacing home prices for the first time since 2008

That last one is critical. When wages grow faster than prices, affordability improves. When affordability improves, demand returns.

The Momentum Is Undeniable

We're not hoping for a good 2026. The data already confirms it's happening.

The wind is at our backs.

Every indicator is pointing up. The momentum going into 2026 is stronger than anything we've seen since the pandemic boom.

Why Homeowners Aren't Selling (And Why That's Actually Good News)

Here's what a lot of agents miss:

Homeowners aren't selling because they don't HAVE to.

This isn't 2008. There's no credit crisis. No forced selling. Homeowners are in the strongest financial position in decades:

• Delinquencies and foreclosures near historic lows
• 40-50% of homes are owned free and clear
• Of mortgaged homes, 50% owe less than half the home's value
• 96% of homes are worth MORE than what the owner paid

Read that last stat again: 96% of homes have positive equity.

This isn't a distressed market. This is a healthy market poised for growth.

When homeowners aren't forced to sell, transaction volume drops. But when conditions improve and they CHOOSE to sell? That's when the surge happens.

And we're setting up for that surge right now.

I'm about to make a statement that will either fire you up or make you defensive.

The next 10 years will be the most profitable decade for real estate agents in history. And at the same time, half the industry will exit.

This is not a "market prediction." It's a positioning problem.

The setup is perfect if you see it.

That single data point kills the "golden handcuffs" excuse.

For three years, agents have repeated the same story: "Nobody is selling because they're locked into low rates. There are no deals. The market is dead."

The data says something else: people have been trading lower rates for higher rates the entire time. They've been moving. And they're about to move more.

The agents who believe the old narrative will miss the best run the industry has ever seen.

Here's the math heading into 2026.

More transactions, fewer competitors. What do you think happens to the agents who are already positioned?

600,000 more deals divided by 400,000 fewer agents is how people get rich.

And this is bigger than 2008. I became the #1 agent in my market by positioning during the crash. That opportunity changed my life.

Here's why this is larger:

• Higher volume recovery than the 2008 cycle, with more pent-up demand
• Dramatically higher prices, which means larger commission opportunity per deal
• Less competition than any modern period as agents exit the business
• More leverage than ever through technology and automation

Same effort, bigger pie, fewer people at the table.

Here's another stat nobody is talking about

2025 recorded the highest number of consumers using real estate agents in history.

In the middle of lawsuits, headlines, and "agents are obsolete" narratives, consumers still chose agents.

The industry isn't dying. Bad agents are dying. There's a massive difference.

Now the part that will decide who survives: AI

AI is going to replace a huge percentage of agents in the next decade. Not directly. Indirectly. Agents using AI will replace agents who don't.

The advantage is not talent. It's efficiency.

It becomes the only competitive advantage that matters when volume expands and attention gets scarce.

So why will half of agents still fail?

Because opportunity doesn't equal success. Execution does.

• Waiting for spring to start prospecting
• Refusing to learn technology
• Not building a database and starting from zero every January
• Chasing tactics instead of building systems

Same market. Different results. The difference is execution.

Here's the simple action plan

The agents making the most money in 2026 will be working the least.

Not because they're lazy. Because they built systems that don't require heroics. Systems scale. Hustle doesn't.

Position now, or watch someone else take your share.