.svg)
By Ricky Carruth
A new data point just dropped that's about to change how real estate agents think about the housing market. If you're paying attention, it confirms what I've been saying for months: 2026 is setting up to be a massive year.
The "golden handcuffs" story just broke.
Here's the stat:
There are now more mortgages with rates at 6% or higher than mortgages at 3% or lower.
Read that again.
For years, everyone assumed sellers were locked in by low rates. The data says otherwise. People have been trading low-rate mortgages for higher-rate mortgages all along—consistently.
Why?
- Massive equity that rolls into the next purchase.
- Downsizing into smaller payments even at higher rates.
- Larger down payments to offset the rate difference.
Rates weren't the real driver of low volume. Affordability was.
Want proof? Look at 2021.
We had some of the lowest inventory ever recorded, yet closed nearly 6 million existing home sales—the second-highest year in history. Low inventory didn't stop transactions. Demand did.
Which brings me to the thesis:
Inventory isn't the constraint anymore. Affordability is improving, demand is returning, and 2026 is the setup.
Right now we have roughly 1.2–1.3 million homes on the market—still below 2019 levels, but far healthier than the post-pandemic lows.
What matters is what's happening to affordability.
Mortgage payments peaked in May and have declined since.
Prices have flattened (and declined in many markets). Rates have pulled back. Wages are now outpacing home prices for the first time since 2008.
When wages grow faster than prices, what do you think happens next?
The early signals are already here.
The momentum going into 2026 is already in motion.
And here's the part most agents miss: homeowners aren't selling because they don't have to. This isn't 2008—there's no forced selling wave.
- Delinquencies and foreclosures near historic lows.
- 40–50% of homes owned free and clear.
- Most mortgaged owners owe less than half the home's value.
- 96% of homeowners have positive equity.
For Us Agents
So for us agents, it doesn't matter.
Our job remains the same.
Use the slower market to expand brand, help the buyers and sellers who want to move now, and stay positioned for the surge.
I did this in 2008. My business exploded to 100 deals a year. The setup today is bigger and the window won't stay open forever.
Be in position when it breaks.
.svg)
.svg)
.svg)